Ghana’s 2025 Economy Outlook

Ghana’s economy has been projected to face greater external stability in 2025 with international reserves expected to reach $8.8 billion by the end of the year. This forecast is based on several factors and economic indicators that have been analyzed by financial institutions such as Fitch Solutions and the World Bank.
Ghana faced serious macroeconomic challenges in 2022 including currency depreciation, rising inflation, and a decline in investor confidence. These issues were worsened by pre-existing fiscal vulnerabilities such as a high debt burden and a rigid budget. However, the World Bank’s latest Economic Update indicates that the economy is expected to recover to its potential growth by 2025.
Economic growth is projected to slow down to 1.5% in 2023 and remain depressed at 2.8% in 2024, but it is anticipated to rebound in 2025.
The recovery is expected to be driven by corrective fiscal and monetary policies aimed at addressing macroeconomic instability. These policies are expected to influence total demand and slow down non-extractive GDP growth in the short term. High inflation, increased interest rates, and macroeconomic uncertainties will keep private consumption and investment growth below pre-pandemic levels leading to subdued non-extractive growth in the short term. As the drag from fiscal consolidation fades and macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms start to bear fruit, growth is expected to recover to its potential by 2025.

Ghana’s reserve position worsened drastically over 2021-2023 due to rapid capital and financial account outflows driven by global risk aversion following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, interest rate hikes in developed markets, and investor concerns about Ghana’s rising debt burden. However, reserves have started recovering in 2024, reaching $6.4 billion in December 2024—the highest level in three years. This recovery has been supported by a sizeable current account surplus, continued IMF disbursements, and reduced financial outflows.
Fitch Solutions projects that Ghana’s international reserves will boost to $8.8 billion by the end of 2025, equivalent to 3.5 months’ worth of imports.
Following the conclusion of Ghana’s debt restructuring process, investor sentiment is expected to improve and boost capital inflows.
The current account balance is projected to remain positive at 1.8% in 2025, supported by elevated global gold prices and a recovery in cocoa production. Ghana recorded a goods trade surplus of 6.4% of GDP in 2024. That is more than double of the 2019-2023 average of 3.0%, driven by robust gold exports and modest primary income outflows.